Arweave

Arweave Accumulation/Distribution

AR · Rank #121
Price
$4.00
Market Cap
$262,409,653
24h Volume
$14,319,074
Circulating Supply
65,652,466

What to expect next: AR move range and market state

Updated hourly · as of 16 Oct, 13:00 UTC

AR is likely to stay within ±7.0% over the next 24 hours, and within ±3.2% over the next 4 - each band held about 80% of the time in testing.

Next 24 hours · likely range
±7.0%
$3.73 – $4.28
The price 24 hours from now stayed inside this range 8 times in 10 in testing; 19 times in 20 inside ±12.8%. Along the way, 8 times in 10 it never strayed further than ±8.9%.
Tested: forecasts the size of moves
Next 4 hours · likely range
±3.2%
$3.87 – $4.13
The price 4 hours from now stayed inside this range 8 times in 10 in testing; 19 times in 20 inside ±6.3%. Along the way, 8 times in 10 it never strayed further than ±3.7%.
Tested: forecasts the size of moves
Volatility vs the past month
Normal
Last 24h: 6.1% · 30-day typical day: 8.1%
calmestwildest
Volatility over the last 24 hours is within the coin's usual range for the past month.
Tested: forecasts the size of moves
Trading volume
0.4× normal
last 24h vs 30-day daily average
Volume over the last 24 hours is 0.4 times the coin's 30-day daily average.
Tested: forecasts the size of moves

Futures and positioning · Binance ARUSDT perpetual

Funding rate
3.2% a year
0.0029% per 8h
month lowmonth high
Longs are paying shorts 0.0029% every 8 hours (3.2% a year), 18th percentile of the past month.
Tested: no predictive value for direction
Open interest
+20.5% 24h
Open interest is $7.7M, up 20.5% in 24 hours: positions are being opened on balance.
Too little history to test yet
Who is long
72% of top-trader positions
56% of all accounts are long
Long share of positions held by Binance's largest futures accounts, and of all accounts by number. Binance publishes only the last 30 days; Whalio keeps them from 12 October 2026.
Too little history to test yet
Perpetual premium
-0.017%
The perpetual trades below the index by 0.017%, 52nd percentile of the past month.
Tested: no predictive value for direction

Who is pushing

Spot net flow, 24h
+4.5%
most sellingmost buying
Buyers on the spot market were ahead by 4.5% of turnover over 24 hours, within its usual range (73rd percentile of the past month). In our test, readings like this said nothing about the next move's direction.
Tested: no predictive value for direction
Futures net flow, 24h
+0.7%
futures volume 3.5× spot
most sellingmost buying
Buyers on the futures market were ahead by 0.7% of turnover over 24 hours, a strong reading for this coin (90th percentile of the past month). In our test, readings like this said nothing about the next move's direction.
Tested: no predictive value for direction
Trades of $10K+, 24h
15 trades
0.8× the past week's daily pace
15 trades of $10,000 or more in 24 hours, $296K in all, with buyers ahead by $69.5K. In our test, which side large trades took said nothing reliable about the next move.
Tested: no predictive value for direction

The labels say what each reading was found to be good for when we tested Whalio's data against what prices did next. Ranges are statistical, not guarantees: roughly one 24-hour window in five ends outside its 80% range, and fast markets break ranges more often. Nothing here tells you what to buy or sell. Compare all coins.

Volume Delta & Buy Ratio

Period Volume Delta Buy Ratio Volume Trades
1 Hour +$25,269 59.6% $131,427 2,327
4 Hours +$85,243 58.1% $526,366 7,860
1 Day +$68,621 51.2% $2,827,254 52,007
Is that normal for Arweave?

The latest daily buy ratio of 51.2% sits at the 82nd percentile of the last 322 days, against a median of 49.2% - stronger buying than most days. Volume ran 1.01 times a typical day, busier than 51% of the last 322.

Cumulative Volume Delta (24h)

Net difference between buying and selling pressure over the last 24 hours

Recent Large Buy/Sell Deals at Binance

Trades at least 10% above AR's average impulse size over the last 7 days

Price
$4.01 +6.35%
Impulses (Last 24 Hours)
15 -31.8%
Net Buy/Sell
+$69,486
Total Amount
$295,892 -35.2%

Last impulse: 2026-10-16 12:18 · compared against the preceding last 24 hours

Time Price Amount Side
2026-10-16 01:39 $3.91 $26,824 Buy
2026-10-15 19:41 $3.93 $41,168 Buy
2026-10-15 18:24 $3.90 $55,569 Sell
2026-10-15 17:18 $3.84 $28,758 Sell

What Arweave's order flow looks like

Whalio holds 322 days of Binance spot order flow for AR, starting 2 November 2025. On a median day the pair turns over $2.8M across 16,307 trades, which works out at about $171 a trade.

On 15 October 2026, the most recent complete day, the buy ratio was 51.18% against a median of 49.2%. That is the 82nd percentile of the days measured, which makes it leaning, but within its normal range. Turnover came to $2.8M, 1 times the median day.

Takers have leaned the same way for 3 days running, net buying throughout. The longest run in that direction this coin has had is 6 days. Over the last week the imbalance totals $216,340 on $19.8M of turnover, with the price down 0.81%.

The heaviest day on record is $128.4M on 7 November 2025, and the busiest by count is 866,435 trades. The largest single-day gain measured is 58.02% on 7 November 2025.

All of this is Binance spot only. The buy ratio counts which side crossed the spread, not who placed the order or why, and AR can trade differently on another venue or in futures.

Figures recomputed after each daily close. The method is on the methodology page.

Price History

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