Bitcoin

Bitcoin Accumulation/Distribution

BTC · Rank #1
Price
$81,944.36
Market Cap
$1,646,986,872,209
24h Volume
$28,858,813,207
Circulating Supply
20,098,843

What to expect next: BTC move range and market state

Updated hourly · as of 16 Oct, 13:00 UTC

BTC is likely to stay within ±2.3% over the next 24 hours, and within ±1.2% over the next 4 - each band held about 80% of the time in testing.

Next 24 hours · likely range
±2.3%
$80,181 – $83,968
The price 24 hours from now stayed inside this range 8 times in 10 in testing; 19 times in 20 inside ±4.2%. Along the way, 8 times in 10 it never strayed further than ±2.9%.
Tested: forecasts the size of moves
Next 4 hours · likely range
±1.2%
$81,095 – $83,022
The price 4 hours from now stayed inside this range 8 times in 10 in testing; 19 times in 20 inside ±2.3%. Along the way, 8 times in 10 it never strayed further than ±1.3%.
Tested: forecasts the size of moves
Volatility vs the past month
Normal
Last 24h: 2.6% · 30-day typical day: 1.8%
calmestwildest
Volatility over the last 24 hours is within the coin's usual range for the past month.
Tested: forecasts the size of moves
Trading volume
1.0× normal
last 24h vs 30-day daily average
Volume over the last 24 hours is 1.0 times the coin's 30-day daily average.
Tested: forecasts the size of moves

Futures and positioning · Binance BTCUSDT perpetual

Funding rate
7.4% a year
0.0068% per 8h
month lowmonth high
Longs are paying shorts 0.0068% every 8 hours (7.4% a year), 79th percentile of the past month.
Tested: no predictive value for direction
Open interest
-4.3% 24h
Open interest is $7.8B, down 4.3% in 24 hours: positions are being closed on balance.
Too little history to test yet
Who is long
59% of top-trader positions
61% of all accounts are long
Long share of positions held by Binance's largest futures accounts, and of all accounts by number. Binance publishes only the last 30 days; Whalio keeps them from 12 October 2026.
Too little history to test yet
Perpetual premium
-0.051%
The perpetual trades below the index by 0.051%, 32nd percentile of the past month.
Tested: no predictive value for direction

Who is pushing

Spot net flow, 24h
-4.4%
most sellingmost buying
Sellers on the spot market were ahead by 4.4% of turnover over 24 hours, within its usual range (36th percentile of the past month). In our test, readings like this said nothing about the next move's direction.
Tested: no predictive value for direction
Futures net flow, 24h
+0.5%
futures volume 9.8× spot
most sellingmost buying
Buyers on the futures market were ahead by 0.5% of turnover over 24 hours, within its usual range (72nd percentile of the past month). In our test, readings like this said nothing about the next move's direction.
Tested: no predictive value for direction
Trades of $10K+, 24h
4,167 trades
1.0× the past week's daily pace
4,167 trades of $10,000 or more in 24 hours, $1.2B in all, with buyers ahead by $63.3M. In our test, which side large trades took said nothing reliable about the next move.
Tested: no predictive value for direction

The labels say what each reading was found to be good for when we tested Whalio's data against what prices did next. Ranges are statistical, not guarantees: roughly one 24-hour window in five ends outside its 80% range, and fast markets break ranges more often. Nothing here tells you what to buy or sell. Compare all coins.

Volume Delta & Buy Ratio

Period Volume Delta Buy Ratio Volume Trades
1 Hour $-1,882,021 48.8% $79,668,925 242,329
4 Hours +$12,995,027 53.2% $203,839,654 528,623
1 Day $-119,969,959 46.7% $1,836,581,200 4,346,924
Is that normal for Bitcoin?

The latest daily buy ratio of 46.7% sits at the 18th percentile of the last 322 days, against a median of 49.2% - weaker buying than most days. Volume ran 1.49 times a typical day, busier than 81% of the last 322.

Cumulative Volume Delta (24h)

Net difference between buying and selling pressure over the last 24 hours

Recent Large Buy/Sell Deals at Binance

Trades at least 10% above BTC's average impulse size over the last 7 days

Price
$82,036.00 +0.09%
Impulses (Last 24 Hours)
4,355 -9.3%
Net Buy/Sell
+$89,235,170
Total Amount
$1,270,732,694 -15.9%

Last impulse: 2026-10-16 16:19 · compared against the preceding last 24 hours

Time Price Amount Side
2026-10-16 16:19 $82,300.60 $338,666 Sell
2026-10-16 16:17 $82,283.90 $374,967 Buy
2026-10-16 16:16 $82,229.90 $7,317,309 Buy
2026-10-16 16:16 $82,196.90 $1,191,526 Buy
2026-10-16 16:16 $82,196.90 $660,123 Buy
2026-10-16 16:16 $82,190.20 $473,333 Buy
2026-10-16 16:15 $82,177.30 $4,085,855 Sell
2026-10-16 16:15 $82,189.00 $543,515 Sell
2026-10-16 16:14 $82,151.40 $298,045 Buy
2026-10-16 16:14 $82,162.80 $5,525,776 Buy
2026-10-16 16:14 $82,140.50 $1,230,793 Buy
2026-10-16 16:13 $82,063.30 $629,507 Buy
2026-10-16 16:13 $82,055.90 $4,651,502 Buy
2026-10-16 16:12 $82,004.60 $781,749 Buy
2026-10-16 16:10 $81,876.80 $4,003,448 Sell
2026-10-16 16:04 $81,914.70 $4,960,508 Buy
2026-10-16 16:02 $82,042.10 $994,760 Buy
2026-10-16 16:01 $81,990.00 $426,675 Buy
2026-10-16 15:59 $82,032.00 $567,937 Sell
2026-10-16 15:58 $82,048.01 $306,136 Buy
2026-10-16 15:56 $82,018.14 $288,212 Sell
2026-10-16 15:56 $82,018.14 $756,641 Buy
2026-10-16 15:54 $81,972.01 $337,434 Buy
2026-10-16 15:53 $81,890.01 $639,860 Sell
2026-10-16 15:52 $81,830.01 $566,835 Buy
2026-10-16 15:51 $81,722.01 $1,999,535 Buy
2026-10-16 15:49 $81,880.00 $905,551 Sell
2026-10-16 15:49 $81,880.00 $574,509 Sell
2026-10-16 15:47 $81,844.01 $491,152 Sell
2026-10-16 15:46 $81,842.01 $988,109 Sell
2026-10-16 15:45 $81,962.02 $288,182 Sell
2026-10-16 15:45 $81,962.02 $20,318,222 Buy
2026-10-16 15:45 $81,962.02 $9,870,015 Buy
2026-10-16 15:44 $81,987.70 $425,530 Sell
2026-10-16 15:43 $81,930.53 $286,058 Buy
2026-10-16 15:43 $81,930.53 $349,750 Buy
2026-10-16 15:42 $81,916.01 $1,641,586 Buy
2026-10-16 15:42 $81,916.01 $823,889 Buy
2026-10-16 15:40 $81,860.00 $443,953 Sell
2026-10-16 15:40 $81,860.00 $482,763 Sell
2026-10-16 15:39 $81,963.10 $292,818 Buy
2026-10-16 15:39 $81,963.10 $1,144,893 Sell
2026-10-16 15:38 $81,894.00 $470,237 Buy
2026-10-16 15:37 $81,850.01 $690,352 Sell
2026-10-16 15:37 $81,850.01 $284,535 Buy
2026-10-16 15:33 $81,849.60 $1,059,919 Buy
2026-10-16 15:33 $81,849.60 $773,982 Buy
2026-10-16 15:32 $81,878.00 $304,498 Buy
2026-10-16 15:32 $81,878.00 $502,668 Buy
2026-10-16 15:32 $81,878.00 $883,272 Buy

What Bitcoin's order flow looks like

Whalio holds 322 days of Binance spot order flow for BTC, starting 2 November 2025. On a median day the pair turns over $1.24bn across 3,375,314 trades, which works out at about $366 a trade.

On 15 October 2026, the most recent complete day, the buy ratio was 46.73% against a median of 49.2%. That is the 18th percentile of the days measured, which makes it leaning, but within its normal range. Turnover came to $1.84bn, 1.5 times the median day.

Net taker flow has not settled into a run: the side crossing the spread in greater size changed within the last three days.

The heaviest day on record is $6.94bn on 5 February 2026, and the busiest by count is 14,805,126 trades. The largest single-day gain measured is 11.81% on 6 February 2026.

All of this is Binance spot only. The buy ratio counts which side crossed the spread, not who placed the order or why, and BTC can trade differently on another venue or in futures.

Figures recomputed after each daily close. The method is on the methodology page.

Price History

Latest Bitcoin News

Each story read against BTC's Binance order flow at the time it broke

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