Cardano falls 68% over year as Uptober odds remain mixed
Cardano (ADA)
Editor:
Eugene Serbin
Digitaltoday.co.kr reports that Cardano (ADA) has rebounded slightly in the short term but remains down 68 percent over the past year. The asset entered a rising range across 7, 14, and 30-day periods, yet its one-year return shows the steepest weakness among major timeframes. From September 2025 to June 2026, ADA closed higher in only one month, April 2026, before sliding to $0.138 from $0.954.
It fell below the 50-week moving average of $0.451 during this period of weakness. A rebound emerged after July, and a September gain would mark three consecutive months of higher closes. Historical data shows ADA closed higher in only two of eight Octobers since 2018, with significant drops in 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024, and 2025.
Analysts suggest a trend reversal requires confirmed buying interest, rising highs and lows, and strengthening volume. As of writing, ADA traded at $0.247, down 3.22 percent in 24 hours, reflecting a pause after last week's strong rebound. Network upgrades are also progressing, with Intersect prioritizing node version 11.1.2 for stake pool operators.
This update corrects testnet issues identified on Sept. 17 and includes continuing Dijkstra integration. Haskell and Dingo nodes are already producing blocks, while Amaru and Girolamo are nearing mainnet production.
How the market reacted
Whalio's own Binance spot order flow for ADA, measured when this story was written up on 29 September 2026. Not the outlet's figures.
Whalio spot data shows ADA trading at $0.2473 with a 24-hour buy ratio of 50.4 percent, indicating balanced sentiment over the full day. However, the 1-hour buy ratio dropped to 41.7 percent, suggesting immediate selling pressure is outweighing buying interest in the short term. In contrast, the 4-hour buy ratio stands at 54.6 percent, showing that buying pressure has built up over a slightly longer timeframe than the last hour. The 24-hour volume delta is positive at $477,150, meaning cumulative buying volume exceeded selling volume over the day. CVD closed at $2,512,939, confirming that net buyers were in control for the majority of the session. Despite the positive daily delta, the 1-hour negative volume delta of -$224,406 indicates that recent trades have been predominantly sell-side.
The latest daily buy ratio of 45.6% sits at the 5th percentile of the last 322 days, against a median of 49.2% - among the weakest buying days it has had.
Was that an ordinary day?
The same Binance spot measurements for ADA, averaged over the days leading up to the story.
Over the preceding week, the 7-day average buy ratio was 50.4 percent, matching the current 24-hour ratio exactly. This suggests that today's buying pressure is consistent with the weekly average rather than deviating from it. Weekly volume was 1.05 times the average, indicating slightly higher than usual trading activity. The 8-day volume delta totaled $3,261,068, showing sustained net buying over the longer period. Net buying occurred on 4 of the last 7 days, reflecting intermittent rather than continuous accumulation. This represents an ordinary day for the coin, with activity levels closely tracking the recent weekly baseline.