Arthur Hayes: AI slowdown could boost Bitcoin via liquidity
Bitcoin (BTC)
Editor:
Eugene Serbin
digitaltoday.co.kr reports that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues AI development slowdowns may benefit Bitcoin by triggering financial liquidity. Hayes suggests major firms like Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are slowing progress due to profitability pressures rather than safety concerns. U.S. AI companies face cost competition from Chinese models, leading to a shift toward efficient computing use instead of expensive new model development.
This shift could reduce demand for computing resources, impacting the value of AI data centers and related debt. Hayes notes that over $1 trillion in investment-grade debt supports U.S. AI computing demand, with hundreds of billions more in lower-rated bonds. A slowdown could cause credit rating agencies to downgrade debt, forcing insurers to secure additional capital.
Private equity firms may use affiliated reinsurers in lightly regulated areas like Vermont to hold up to $1.54 trillion in AI-linked assets. If these assets lose value, insurers could face capital burdens, potentially prompting U.S. government intervention similar to the 2008 AIG crisis. Hayes believes such government support would expand liquidity, creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin. He emphasizes this is a personal outlook on how financial shocks and policy responses could drive funds into cryptocurrency.
How the market reacted
Whalio's own Binance spot order flow for BTC, measured when this story was written up on 23 September 2026. Not the outlet's figures.
Bitcoin is trading at $86,208.56 with a 1-hour buy ratio of 44.4% and a 4-hour buy ratio of 48.7%, both below the 24-hour average of 44.5%. The 1-hour volume delta is -$5,668,148, while the 4-hour delta is -$7,077,626, indicating that selling pressure is currently outweighing buying pressure in the short term. Over the last 24 hours, the volume delta stands at -$202,961,059, showing a net outflow of capital from spot markets. The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) for the 24-hour close is -$162,898,178, confirming that sellers have dominated the trading session. Only 5 out of the last 24 hours saw net buying, suggesting that the market is not currently accumulating aggressively despite the news.
The latest daily buy ratio of 46.7% sits at the 18th percentile of the last 322 days, against a median of 49.2% - weaker buying than most days.
Was that an ordinary day?
The same Binance spot measurements for BTC, averaged over the days leading up to the story.
Over the preceding week, the average buy ratio was 51.7%, making today's 24-hour ratio of 44.5% notably lower by 7.2 points. Spot volume for the last 24 hours was $1,834,036,115, which is 1.29 times the weekly average, indicating significantly higher activity than usual. While the weekly volume delta was positive at $137,900,217, today's negative delta shows a reversal from the previous week's net buying trend. Bitcoin has risen 14.0% over the past 8 days, but today's trading shows a distinct shift toward selling pressure compared to the prior week's accumulation.