Benson Sun Forecasts Slow Bitcoin Bull Run Driven by Institutions
Bitcoin (BTC)
Editor:
Eugene Serbin
lookonchain.com reports that crypto KOL Benson Sun anticipates a gradual bull market for Bitcoin, characterized by successive new all-time highs rather than the sharp spikes seen in 2013 and 2017. Sun attributes this shift to the transition of buying demand from retail investors to institutional players like spot ETFs and corporate treasuries since 2021. Because institutions favor spot assets and delta-neutral arbitrage, traditional metrics like funding rates may not reach extreme levels during the cycle peak.
Instead, the peak will likely be defined by a lack of follow-through from institutional capital rather than retail euphoria. Sun utilizes the Institutional Liquidity Index to track this alignment, noting that a yellow divergence occurs when Bitcoin hits a 30-day rolling high while liquidity fails to rise. A red divergence forms if Bitcoin breaks its all-time high while the index remains below 50.
He plans to reduce altcoin positions and leverage with each yellow divergence, eventually holding only spot assets. If a red divergence appears, he will stop further participation in the market. The report also briefly mentions other market movements, including a $PEPE whale transferring $52 million and a trader profiting from Binance listings. Additionally, it notes that Elon Musk’s tweet caused a 30% surge in the MOLT coin, which hit a new all-time high of $114 million.
How the market reacted
Whalio's own Binance spot order flow for BTC, measured when this story was written up on 26 September 2026. Not the outlet's figures.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $84,099.99 with a 1-hour buy ratio of 52.7%, indicating immediate short-term buying pressure. However, this momentum is fading over longer timeframes, as the 4-hour buy ratio drops to 40.4% and the 24-hour ratio settles at 47.3%. The volume delta reflects this shift, showing a net inflow of $2,573,535 in the last hour but a net outflow of $22,116,129 over four hours. Over the full day, the net outflow reaches $81,164,253, with a cumulative volume delta of -$9,238,704. This suggests that while small-scale buyers are active now, larger sellers are dominating the broader session. Net buying occurred in only 11 of the last 24 hours, highlighting a lack of sustained demand.
The latest daily buy ratio of 46.7% sits at the 18th percentile of the last 322 days, against a median of 49.2% - weaker buying than most days.
Was that an ordinary day?
The same Binance spot measurements for BTC, averaged over the days leading up to the story.
This trading activity represents a deviation from the preceding week, where the average buy ratio was 49.6%. Today’s 24-hour buy ratio of 47.3% is 2.2 percentage points lower than that weekly average, indicating weaker relative demand. Volume also remained subdued at 0.91 times the weekly average, suggesting a quieter market than usual. Over the past eight days, the price increased by 4.0% despite a total volume delta of -$203,076,671. Only three of the past seven days saw net buying, confirming that this is an unusual day characterized by lower volume and reduced buying intensity compared to the recent trend.