Bernstein Forecasts Bitcoin at $125K by Year-End
Bitcoin (BTC)
Editor:
Eugene Serbin
bitcoinethereumnews.com reports that Bernstein has set a $125,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of 2026. The firm’s analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, project the asset could reach $150,000 by mid-2027 based on historical four-year cycle patterns. Using a marginal production cost model, Bernstein places the next cycle peak near $300,000 in 2029.
A more bullish scenario sees Bitcoin hitting $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029 if institutional demand grows alongside government debt concerns. The firm maintains a long-term target of $1 million by the end of 2033. Bernstein attributes Bitcoin’s resilience to ETF buying and corporate treasury purchases, noting the recent 50% decline was less severe than the 75-90% drops in previous cycles.
Ownership data shows 59% of supply has not moved in the past year, indicating holders are weathering price swings. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $606 million in inflows on Aug. 20, following $517 million the prior day. BlackRock reduced the minimum conversion amount for its IBIT fund from $25 million to $1 million, with Robbie Mitchnick stating IBIT has processed over $5 billion in conversions. Bernstein also adjusted its price target for Strategy, the largest corporate holder, cutting it from $450 to $350 while maintaining an Outperform rating.
How the market reacted
Whalio's own Binance spot order flow for BTC, measured when this story was written up on 27 August 2026. Not the outlet's figures.
Bitcoin trades at $79,023.75 with a 24-hour buy ratio of 49.9%, indicating a near-even split between buyers and sellers. Short-term pressure leans bearish, as the 1-hour buy ratio drops to 45.5% and the 4-hour ratio sits at 47.1%. Volume Delta confirms this sentiment, showing a net outflow of -$4,442,654 in the last hour and -$19,235,282 over four hours. The Cumulative Volume Delta for the 24-hour close is -$72,855,416, reflecting sustained selling pressure throughout the day. Buying pressure is fading in the short term, with only 9 of the last 24 hours seeing net buying. This negative delta indicates that sell orders have outweighed buy orders in recent trading sessions.
The latest daily buy ratio of 46.7% sits at the 18th percentile of the last 322 days, against a median of 49.2% - weaker buying than most days.
Twenty-four hours later
What BTC did over the 24 hours after the story broke. The market moves for its own reasons; this is what happened, not what the story caused.
Was that an ordinary day?
The same Binance spot measurements for BTC, averaged over the days leading up to the story.
The current 24-hour buy ratio of 49.9% is lower than the 7-day average of 51.6%, showing a slight shift toward selling pressure compared to the recent week. Volume is also subdued, trading at 0.54x the weekly average, which suggests reduced participation relative to the preceding days. While the coin gained 14.0% over the past eight days, today’s activity is quieter than the weekly norm. The 8-day Volume Delta of +$445,688,281 contrasts with today’s negative delta, highlighting a reversal in flow direction. This represents an unusual day for the coin, as buying dominance from the previous week has given way to net selling.