Bitcoin Eyes $100K as Prediction Markets Show Divided Sentiment
Bitcoin (BTC)
Editor:
Eugene Serbin
news.bitcoin.com reports that prediction market traders are allocating millions toward Bitcoin price targets ranging from $50,000 to $150,000, revealing a divided outlook on the asset's near-term trajectory. Polymarket has seen nearly $59.7 million in volume for contracts tracking Bitcoin's price before the end of 2026, with a 69% probability assigned to hitting $85,000 and a 49% chance for $90,000. Higher targets face steeper odds, with $100,000 priced at 29%, $110,000 at 20%, and $120,000 at just 13%.
Downside hedging is also active, as traders assign a 67% probability to Bitcoin touching $70,000 and a 44% chance for $65,000 before year-end. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani offers a more bullish long-term view, projecting a cycle peak near $300,000 by the end of 2029. He envisions Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by mid-2027 and roughly $125,000 by the end of this year, citing institutional demand and fixed supply.
Meanwhile, Polymarket’s market for when Bitcoin reaches $100,000 shows only a 34% probability by December 31, 2026, rising to 81% by the end of 2027. Kalshi data mirrors this caution, with its $100,000 market showing a 29% probability before January 2027. A specific Kalshi contract indicates a 21% chance Bitcoin crashes to $50,000 before reaching $100,000. The $150,000 target faces an even steeper climb on Kalshi, with only a 6% probability of being reached before January 2027 despite $36 million in volume.
How the market reacted
Whalio's own Binance spot order flow for BTC, measured when this story was written up on 27 August 2026. Not the outlet's figures.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $79,023.75 with a 24-hour buy ratio of 49.9%, indicating a near-even split in buying pressure over the last day. Short-term momentum shows weakening conviction, as the 1-hour buy ratio drops to 44.7% and the 4-hour ratio falls further to 43.0%. This decline in short-term buying ratios compared to the 24-hour average suggests that immediate buying pressure is fading. The market is experiencing net outflows, evidenced by a negative volume delta of -$9,605,302 in the last hour and -$13,495,762 over four hours. Volume delta measures the difference between buy and sell volume, so negative values indicate that sellers are dominating the current flow. Over the past 24 hours, the cumulative volume delta stands at -$903,088, confirming that selling pressure has slightly outweighed buying pressure recently.
The latest daily buy ratio of 46.7% sits at the 18th percentile of the last 322 days, against a median of 49.2% - weaker buying than most days.
Twenty-four hours later
What BTC did over the 24 hours after the story broke. The market moves for its own reasons; this is what happened, not what the story caused.
Was that an ordinary day?
The same Binance spot measurements for BTC, averaged over the days leading up to the story.
This trading activity follows a week where the average buy ratio was significantly higher at 51.6%, making today's 49.9% reading slightly below the weekly norm. The current 24-hour spot volume of $1,148,236,056 is roughly half the volume seen during the preceding week's average activity. While the market saw net buying on six of the last seven days, today's lower buy ratio and negative delta mark a shift from that consistent accumulation. The price has risen 14.0% over the past eight days, supported by a total volume delta of +$445,688,281 for that period. Today represents a pause in the strong buying trend, with volume dropping to 0.54x the weekly average.