Bitcoin rebounds 26% as market cycle shifts to neutral
Bitcoin (BTC)
Editor:
Eugene Serbin
Digitaltoday.co.kr reports that Bitcoin has recovered 26 percent from its mid-August low, bringing market cycle indicators back to a neutral range. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated that the asset has returned to a value of 40, marking the boundary of the neutral zone after a prolonged period in a cooling phase. This rebound was initially triggered by large-scale short liquidations on August 19 and was further supported by $2.23 billion in inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds over a week.
Glassnode identified a structure where ETF inflows underpinned the rally sparked by those liquidations. Renewed accumulation also supported the recovery, with the 30-day cumulative trend score staying at 0.5 or above across all six wallet-size groups for 20 consecutive days starting August 5. Large wallets led this accumulation effort, mirroring a similar pattern seen in late 2024.
Resistance zones overlap on the upside, with Glassnode identifying $81,000 to $86,000 as a key resistance band. Within this band, $83,000 to $86,000 represents an area where long-term holders' acquisition prices are concentrated. The derivatives market also signaled potential for higher volatility, with dealer gamma turning negative at $82,300.
Glassnode noted that if Bitcoin closes above $83,300 while ETF inflows continue, it may indicate that selling pressure is being absorbed. Downside risks remain, with $70,000 identified as the level where weakness may first appear, and a drop to $62,900 potentially unwinding the recent uptrend.
How the market reacted
Whalio's own Binance spot order flow for BTC, measured when this story was written up on 28 August 2026. Not the outlet's figures.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $80,249.58, with a 1-hour buy ratio of 50.7% contrasting sharply with a 4-hour buy ratio of 39.8%. This divergence suggests that while immediate buying pressure is present, it is fading over the longer timeframe. The 24-hour buy ratio sits at 45.2%, indicating a slight shift toward selling pressure over the full day. Volume delta data shows a positive $591,721 in the last hour, but a significant negative $36,806,801 over four hours. Over 24 hours, the volume delta is -$123,102,218, and the cumulative volume delta (CVD) at the close is -$96,590,017. Net buying occurred for only 9 of the last 24 hours, with total spot volume reaching $1,297,370,375 across nearly 5 million trades.
The latest daily buy ratio of 46.7% sits at the 18th percentile of the last 322 days, against a median of 49.2% - weaker buying than most days.
Twenty-four hours later
What BTC did over the 24 hours after the story broke. The market moves for its own reasons; this is what happened, not what the story caused.
Was that an ordinary day?
The same Binance spot measurements for BTC, averaged over the days leading up to the story.
Over the preceding week, the average buy ratio was 51.1%, meaning the latest day's ratio is 5.8 points lower than the weekly average. Trading volume for the day was just 0.65 times the weekly average, indicating significantly reduced activity compared to the norm. Net buying occurred on 5 of the 7 days, with a total volume delta of +$171,556,665 for the period. The price increased by 9.9% over the eight-day window. This represents an ordinary day for the coin in terms of directional bias but an unusual one due to the substantial drop in volume relative to the weekly baseline.