CryptoQuant CEO forecasts milder Bitcoin bull market
Bitcoin (BTC)
Editor:
Eugene Serbin
digitaltoday.co.kr reports that Bitcoin's current bull market gains may be limited to 3 to 5 times, a significant reduction from the more than 10 times seen in previous cycles. CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ju Ki-young stated this forecast on X on September 23, attributing the shift to a changed market structure. He explained that the market is no longer dominated by retail investors and short-term speculative money, which previously drove 80 percent drops.
Instead, increased institutional holdings are easing extreme volatility in both directions. Ju cited the PnL index to show that profit peaks are less extreme and bottoms form at higher profitability levels. He also highlighted the MVRV indicator, noting it has not fallen below 1 in this cycle, meaning holders have not entered a state of unrealised loss on average.
The CEO pointed to increased realised market capitalisation as evidence of fresh inflows and large long positions built by whale traders near the bottom. He added that the 365-day moving average of the PnL index has recently created a meaningful inflection point. Ju clarified that this does not cap Bitcoin's upside but changes the trade-off, lowering the odds of an 80 percent plunge. He suggested this trend draws long-term money and moves Bitcoin closer to Satoshi Nakamoto's vision of a stable currency.
How the market reacted
Whalio's own Binance spot order flow for BTC, measured when this story was written up on 24 September 2026. Not the outlet's figures.
Bitcoin is trading at $84,397.60 with a 1-hour buy ratio of 37.9% and a 4-hour buy ratio of 45.5%, both trailing the 24-hour buy ratio of 46.7%. This divergence suggests that buying pressure is fading in the shorter timeframes compared to the daily average. The Volume Delta reflects this sentiment, showing a net outflow of -$9,951,340 over the last hour and -$16,028,761 over four hours. Over the full day, the Volume Delta sits at -$124,807,070, indicating that sellers have dominated the flow relative to buyers. The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) for the 24-hour close is -$204,627,477, confirming that net selling pressure has outweighed net buying pressure throughout the day. Only 7 out of 24 hours saw net buying, highlighting a day where the market struggled to maintain upward momentum despite the higher daily ratio.
The latest daily buy ratio of 46.7% sits at the 18th percentile of the last 322 days, against a median of 49.2% - weaker buying than most days.
Was that an ordinary day?
The same Binance spot measurements for BTC, averaged over the days leading up to the story.
The current 24-hour buy ratio of 46.7% is below the 7-day average of 51.0%, marking a 4.4 percentage point drop from the weekly norm. This indicates that today is an ordinary day for the coin, characterized by a slight decrease in buying intensity compared to the recent trend. Volume has been elevated at 1.30 times the average, showing that despite lower buying ratios, trading activity remains robust. The preceding week saw a price change of +10.7% over 8 days, driven by a total Volume Delta of +$42,294,167. While the weekly trend was net positive, today's negative daily delta suggests a pause in the accumulation phase observed over the previous week.