Fed rate outlook caps Bitcoin at $80,000 as flows shift
Bitcoin (BTC)
Editor:
Eugene Serbin
digitaltoday.co.kr reports that Bitcoin is struggling to break above $80,000 as U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy acts as a key ceiling for upside potential. CoinShares head of research James Butterfill stated that liquidity and rate expectations are driving fund flows more than the asset's price itself. Following Jackson Hole comments by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh regarding limited inflation progress, approximately $100 million flowed out of digital asset products.
This triggered a sharp rise in the perceived odds of a September rate increase. However, flows reversed later in the week, recovering to $1 billion by Sept. 4 as Governor Christopher Waller cited easing inflation signs. Butterfill noted that investors are trading the rate path rather than exiting the asset class.
Current fed funds futures price in a 60 percent chance of a rate increase after the next FOMC meeting. The U.S. Treasury also announced a doubling of long-dated Treasury buybacks to $4 billion per operation from Sept. 9 to Nov. 4. 21Shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder suggested the recent rally may relate to reducing U.S. exposure rather than crypto-specific catalysts. Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin could reach $100,000 before year-end if liquidity conditions hold.
How the market reacted
Whalio's own Binance spot order flow for BTC, measured when this story was written up on 8 September 2026. Not the outlet's figures.
Bitcoin is trading at $79,112.01 with a 24-hour buy ratio of 49.0%, indicating a near-even split between buyers and sellers. Short-term pressure is slightly bearish, with the 1-hour buy ratio at 45.5% and the 4-hour ratio at 45.7%. Volume delta confirms this selling pressure, showing a net outflow of $4,531,590 in the last hour and $45,821,264 over four hours. Over the full day, the cumulative volume delta stands at -$16,755,460, with a total Cumulative Volume Delta of -$94,223,645 at close. This means sellers have been more aggressive than buyers, pushing the price down despite high trading activity. Net buying occurred in only 8 of the last 24 hours, highlighting a lack of sustained upward momentum.
The latest daily buy ratio of 46.7% sits at the 18th percentile of the last 322 days, against a median of 49.2% - weaker buying than most days.
Was that an ordinary day?
The same Binance spot measurements for BTC, averaged over the days leading up to the story.
The current 24-hour buy ratio of 49.0% is lower than the 7-day average of 50.3%, showing a slight dip in buying intensity compared to the recent week. Volume is also subdued, trading at 0.75 times the weekly average. While the preceding week saw a total positive volume delta of $105,913,561, today's negative delta indicates a reversal of that trend. This is an unusual day relative to the weekly norm, as buying pressure has weakened and volume has contracted. The coin has only seen net buying on 4 of the past 7 days, suggesting the recent upward price change of 0.7% was not driven by consistent accumulation.