BTC leverage flush as Fed rate hike odds rise to 87.3%
Bitcoin (BTC)
Editor:
Eugene Serbin
ambcrypto.com reports that Bitcoin faces a critical hurdle at $82k resistance amid rising probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike. The FedWatch tool indicated an 87.3% chance of a 25 bps increase to 375-400 bps, increasing the likelihood of a bearish price reaction. CryptoQuant analysis by XWIN Japan highlighted a tension between persistent long-term buyers and short-term caution.
Bitcoin retraced into the $76k demand zone following the U.S. CPI report, which triggered $685.5 million in liquidations. The past four trading days have seen outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, while Binance BTC reserves hit a 2-year high. The Coinbase Premium Index slipped into negative territory, contrasting with earlier signals of confidence from U.S.-based investors.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that Bitcoin Open Interest declined by 13.6k BTC in a single day. This liquidity flush wiped out over-leveraged traders, making a liquidation cascade less likely as price moved from $77k to $79.9k before retracing.
How the market reacted
Whalio's own Binance spot order flow for BTC, measured when this story was written up on 13 September 2026. Not the outlet's figures.
Whalio data shows BTC trading at $77,278.73 with a 1-hour buy ratio of 61.6% and a 4-hour ratio of 60.5%, both significantly higher than the 53.5% seen over the last 24 hours. This indicates that buying pressure is building in the short term compared to the broader daily trend. The volume delta reflects this shift, showing a net inflow of +$4,297,088 in the last hour and +$15,383,864 over four hours. Over the full 24-hour period, the volume delta stands at +$43,646,194, with a CVD close of +$47,266,149. These figures suggest that net buying has occurred for 14 of the last 24 hours, driving a spot volume of $622,849,160.
The latest daily buy ratio of 46.7% sits at the 18th percentile of the last 322 days, against a median of 49.2% - weaker buying than most days.
Was that an ordinary day?
The same Binance spot measurements for BTC, averaged over the days leading up to the story.
This recent buying activity contrasts with the preceding week, where the 7-day average buy ratio was only 46.6%. Today’s 24-hour buy ratio of 53.5% is 6.9 percentage points higher than that weekly average, marking a notable shift in sentiment. However, trading volume remains subdued, sitting at 0.57 times the weekly average. Over the previous eight days, the market saw a total volume delta of -$486,137,310 and a price change of -3.2%. While today shows net buying for the first time in a week, the overall weekly trend remains bearish with zero days of net buying in the prior seven-day period.