Filecoin price rises to $1.03 ahead of supply shift
Filecoin (FIL)
Editor:
Eugene Serbin
tradersunion.com reports that Filecoin (FIL) has climbed to $1.03, marking an 8.2% gain over the last day. The asset is trading above key moving averages, including the MA-20 at $0.99 and the MA-50 at $0.97, signaling strong upward momentum. A major supply change is expected after October 2026, when vesting periods for Protocol Labs and the Filecoin Foundation end, reducing gross FIL issuance by 75%.
This reduction aims to lower filtration pressure and create long-term scarcity through token burns and collateral locks. Technical indicators show bullish conditions, with the MACD signaling a buy and the RSI at 68.96. However, the Stochastic RSI and CCI suggest the asset is approaching overbought territory.
The Ichimoku Kijun at $0.99 provides immediate support, while $1.03 stands as the near-term session high. Analysts note that bullish momentum is currently clashing with signs of short-term exhaustion. The price is projected to trade between $0.98 and $1.21 in the coming sessions. There is an 80% probability of further upside, with downside risk considered very low.
How the market reacted
Whalio's own Binance spot order flow for FIL, measured when this story was written up on 25 September 2026. Not the outlet's figures.
Whalio data shows FIL trading at $0.9908 with a 1-hour buy ratio of 41.7%, indicating short-term selling pressure. In contrast, the 4-hour buy ratio stands at 60.7%, suggesting that buying interest is building over a slightly longer timeframe. The 24-hour buy ratio is 49.5%, sitting near an even split between buyers and sellers. Volume delta for the hour is negative at -$140,392, showing net selling in the immediate term. However, the 4-hour volume delta is positive at +$958,416, reflecting net buying over that period. The 24-hour volume delta is -$155,332, indicating that net selling has outweighed buying over the full day. Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) closed at +$458,689, showing that net buying pressure has accumulated over the session. This data reveals a market where intraday selling is offset by stronger buying trends over four-hour intervals.
The latest daily buy ratio of 50.9% sits at the 79th percentile of the last 323 days, against a median of 48.9% - stronger buying than most days.
Was that an ordinary day?
The same Binance spot measurements for FIL, averaged over the days leading up to the story.
Over the preceding week, the 7-day average buy ratio was 49.2%, compared to the latest day's 49.5%. This represents a slight increase of 0.4 points in buying sentiment. Spot volume for the day was $16,441,816, which is 0.70x the weekly average, indicating lower than usual trading activity. Only 2 of the last 7 days saw net buying, suggesting this is not an ordinary day for accumulation. The price rose 17.8% over the past 8 days, despite a total volume delta of -$4,264,524 for that period. This context shows that while price has surged, the underlying buying pressure has been inconsistent and volume has been subdued.