Standard Chartered Forecasts Ethena USDe Supply to Grow Eightfold by Year-End 2028
Ethena USDe (USDe)
Editor:
Eugene Serbin
blockchainjournal.news reported that Standard Chartered initiated research coverage on Ethena on September 30, 2026, projecting an eightfold growth for its synthetic dollar asset USDe. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, forecasts USDe circulation will reach $40 billion by year-end 2028, up from approximately $4.9 billion in September 2026. The report sets a $2.00 price target for the ENA governance token by late 2028, with intermediate milestones of $0.42 for 2026 and $1.10 by late 2027.
Kendrick bases this thesis on Ethena’s positioning in cryptocurrency perpetual futures, tokenized real-world assets, and decentralized finance stablecoins. Standard Chartered estimates the total stablecoin market will reach $2 trillion by 2028, driven by migration from bank deposits to digital currency instruments. Ethena currently ranks as the second-largest issuer in the yield-bearing stablecoin segment, trailing Sky.
The valuation model includes ENA buybacks triggered once supply reaches $7.5 billion, funded by protocol revenue from basis spreads and lending fees. At $40 billion in USDe supply, annual buybacks could absorb roughly 23% of circulating ENA supply. Ethena publicly questioned the conservative nature of the $40 billion target, noting its internal roadmap aims for $100 billion in USDe circulation over five years. The bank identified risks including slower institutional adoption, liquidity constraints in tokenized assets, and margin pressure from competing yield sources.
How the market reacted
Whalio's own Binance spot order flow for USDe, measured when this story was written up on 30 September 2026. Not the outlet's figures.
USDe is trading at $1.00 with a 24-hour buy ratio of 36.0%, indicating that buying pressure is currently fading compared to the 1-hour reading of 28.8% and the 4-hour reading of 24.3%. The volume delta shows negative outflows of -$11,354 over the last hour, -$46,419 over four hours, and -$270,171 over the past day, suggesting net selling activity. The cumulative volume delta (CVD) for the 24-hour close is -$153,561, confirming that sellers have dominated the recent flow. Despite the negative delta, net buying occurred for 17 of the last 24 hours, though the spot volume of $961,666 reflects moderate trading activity. These metrics show that while buyers are present, the intensity of buying has decreased over the shorter timeframes relative to the full day.
The latest daily buy ratio of 51.8% sits at the 56th percentile of the last 322 days, against a median of 48.5% - ordinary for this coin.
Was that an ordinary day?
The same Binance spot measurements for USDe, averaged over the days leading up to the story.
This trading day appears unusual compared to the preceding week, where the average buy ratio was significantly higher at 53.2%. The current 24-hour buy ratio of 36.0% is 17.2 percentage points lower than the weekly average, marking a distinct shift in sentiment. Volume activity has also slowed, with today’s spot volume at 0.10x the weekly average, indicating much lower participation. While the weekly volume delta was positive at +$20,029,899, today’s negative delta of -$270,171 highlights a reversal from the prior week's net buying trend. Only 4 of the past 7 days saw net buying, suggesting this recent pullback is part of a broader cooling period rather than an isolated event.