Zcash Price Models Suggest ZEC Is Overvalued Against Bitcoin
Zcash (ZEC)
Editor:
Eugene Serbin
Cryptopotato.com reports that Zcash recently surged near $1,300, prompting comparisons to Bitcoin due to their shared 21 million maximum supply. Analyst filbfilb argues that matching circulating supply alone is insufficient for valuation and developed models to quantify Zcash's network value relative to Bitcoin. At an equivalent issuance stage, Zcash’s transaction activity represents roughly 3.71% of Bitcoin’s, implying an approximate price of $254.
A second model comparing current networks shows Zcash processes 1.01% of Bitcoin’s transaction count, suggesting a value near $944. Both figures sit below Zcash's recent high, though filbfilb notes that transaction counts ignore transfer size differences. To address this, the analyst assumes 58% of transactions are shielded and adjusts for transfer value, estimating Zcash reaches 12.34% of Bitcoin’s equivalent-stage transfer value.
Blending transaction and privacy-adjusted models yields an estimated network progress of 8.03%. If Bitcoin’s valuation is the destination, a 100% value-capture scenario implies a price of roughly $7,480. The analyst emphasizes these are scenarios, not price targets, noting limitations like architectural differences and unmeasurable shielded values. The takeaway is that Zcash appears relatively expensive at current highs compared to its network achievements.
How the market reacted
Whalio's own Binance spot order flow for ZEC, measured when this story was written up on 13 September 2026. Not the outlet's figures.
Zcash is trading at $1,123.09 on Binance spot markets, with a 24-hour buy ratio of 52.7% indicating a slight majority of volume is buying. This buying pressure has strengthened over the last four hours, where the buy ratio rose to 53.5%, compared to a weaker 40.1% in the last hour. The volume delta reflects this shift, turning positive at +$1,689,578 over four hours after being negative -$1,622,155 in the last hour. A positive volume delta means buyers are aggressively taking liquidity from the order book, while a negative delta indicates sellers are hitting bids. The 24-hour cumulative volume delta closed at +$888,793, confirming net buying dominance over the full day. Despite the recent hourly dip in buying ratio, the four-hour trend suggests momentum is rebuilding.
The latest daily buy ratio of 52.9% sits at the 82nd percentile of the last 322 days, against a median of 50.2% - stronger buying than most days.
Was that an ordinary day?
The same Binance spot measurements for ZEC, averaged over the days leading up to the story.
Over the preceding week, Zcash averaged a 50.5% buy ratio, with the latest day showing a 2.2 percentage point increase above that average. This indicates that current buying intensity is slightly higher than the weekly norm, though total volume remains at 0.77 times the average. Price increased by 9.5% over eight days, supported by a total volume delta of +$32,871,567. While the recent hourly buy ratio dipped, the four-hour and daily metrics remain above the weekly baseline. This suggests the coin is experiencing a period of above-average accumulation relative to its recent weekly behavior.