Fed Hike Odds Rise to 83% as Bitcoin Correlation Hits Record
XRP (XRP)
Editor:
Eugene Serbin
finance.yahoo.com reports that Polymarket now prices an 83% probability of a September 16 Federal Reserve rate hike, up from 30% before the Jackson Hole symposium. This shift follows a hotter-than-expected core CPI print of 0.3% in August, which suggests underlying price pressure remains sticky. Barclays reversed its forecast on August 31 to call for consecutive 25 basis point hikes, driving prediction markets to double their odds over the past month.
Bitcoin’s correlation to rate-sensitive assets has reached a record high, meaning a Fed move will impact crypto faster than in previous cycles. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% on September 10, indicating that bonds are trading the hike before it occurs. Bitcoin trades at $77,293.66, while XRP sits at $1.37, with both assets having held their levels despite the yield jump.
An 83% priced-in hike implies a delivered move may produce only a modest reaction, whereas an 18% hold scenario carries the biggest surprise potential. Chair Kevin Warsh’s Fed has held rates at a 3.75% upper bound since December 2025, and a hike would end that five-meeting streak.
How the market reacted
Whalio's own Binance spot order flow for XRP, measured when this story was written up on 12 September 2026. Not the outlet's figures.
XRP trades at $1.36 with a 1-hour buy ratio of 41.5%, indicating short-term selling pressure, while the 4-hour ratio rises to 53.2%, suggesting buying interest is building over a slightly longer timeframe. The 24-hour buy ratio sits at 48.3%, showing a near-even split between buyers and sellers over the full day. Volume Delta is negative -$316,335 in the last hour, meaning sellers are currently dominating, but positive +$782,520 over four hours, reflecting earlier buying activity. Over 24 hours, the Volume Delta is -$7,884,205, and the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) closes at -$2,774,424, confirming that net selling has outweighed buying throughout the day. Spot volume reached $237,429,382 across 1,199,132 trades, with net buying occurring in only 9 of the 24 hours.
The latest daily buy ratio of 50.6% sits at the 83rd percentile of the last 322 days, against a median of 48.5% - stronger buying than most days.
Was that an ordinary day?
The same Binance spot measurements for XRP, averaged over the days leading up to the story.
Compared to the preceding week, XRP’s 24-hour buy ratio of 48.3% is slightly below the 7-day average of 50.1%, a difference of 1.8 percentage points. Trading volume is 1.41 times the weekly average, indicating significantly higher activity than usual. The price has dropped 3.0% over the past eight days, with a total Volume Delta of -$1,120,207 for the period. Net buying occurred on only 3 of the 7 days, suggesting a generally bearish week. This day sees elevated volume but lower buying pressure than the weekly average, marking an unusual day of high activity without strong net buying.