XRP Price Analysis at $500B Market Cap
XRP (XRP)
Editor:
Eugene Serbin
cvj.ai reports that analyst EGRAG CRYPTO has calculated the potential price of XRP if its market capitalization reaches $500 billion. Assuming the circulating supply remains static at 62.74 billion tokens, this valuation would imply a price of nearly $8 per token. However, the supply is not static because Ripple continues to distribute tokens from escrow at a net average of 268 million per month.
If this distribution pace continues through 2029, approximately 9.1 billion additional XRP would enter circulation, raising the total supply to 71.9 billion. Dividing the $500 billion target by this projected supply yields a price of $6.96 per XRP. EGRAG CRYPTO noted that depending on the speed of escrow releases, the price target could range between $6.85 and $7.20.
The analyst clarified that not all unlocked tokens enter the market immediately, as some may be returned to escrow or remain under company control. This analysis highlights that supply dynamics can temper optimistic price predictions compared to simpler calculations. A $500 billion market cap would be nearly double Ethereum’s current valuation, requiring significant adoption to achieve. The report emphasizes that investors must consider both market cap and circulating supply when evaluating valuations.
How the market reacted
Whalio's own Binance spot order flow for XRP, measured when this story was written up on 29 August 2026. Not the outlet's figures.
XRP is currently trading at $1.38 with a 24-hour spot volume of $220,045,086. Short-term buy ratios are slightly below parity at 45.4% for the 1-hour and 49.6% for the 4-hour window, while the 24-hour ratio sits at 50.4%. Volume deltas show net selling pressure in the last hour and four hours, but net buying over the full day. The CVD for the 24-hour close is -$136,605, indicating that sell volume slightly outweighed buy volume over the day. Buying pressure appears to be stabilizing after short-term selling, though the day ended with a net negative delta. This suggests a balanced but slightly cautious market sentiment in the immediate term.
The latest daily buy ratio of 50.6% sits at the 83rd percentile of the last 322 days, against a median of 48.5% - stronger buying than most days.
Twenty-four hours later
What XRP did over the 23 hours after the story broke. The market moves for its own reasons; this is what happened, not what the story caused.
Was that an ordinary day?
The same Binance spot measurements for XRP, averaged over the days leading up to the story.
Over the preceding week, the average buy ratio was 49.0%, making today's 24-hour reading of 50.4% slightly higher by 1.4 points. However, trading volume today was only 0.50x the weekly average, indicating significantly reduced participation. The coin experienced a 4.9% price drop over eight days, with a total volume delta of -$63,583,140 for the period. Net buying occurred on only one of the seven days, suggesting a generally bearish week. Today represents a slight improvement in buy ratio but with much lower volume compared to the weekly norm.